Back to XRX Profile
    Insight
    published
    2025-12-30

    XRX INVESTOR DECK

    Investor Presentation: Project Zero - The Blueprint for Xerox

    Ticker: XRX | Date: Dec 24, 2025 | Confidential


    Slide 1: Title

    Project Zero

    Unlocking $40/Share Value in Xerox Holdings Corp

    Golden Door Research Activist Campaign Deck


    Slide 2: Executive Summary

    The Thesis in Brief

    • The Disconnect: Market prices XRX as a dying business (<5x FCF). We view it as a mismanaged utility with 10+ years of stable cash flow.
    • The Opportunity: Operational mismanagement has obscured the underlying profitability. SG&A is ~25% of revenue vs. 14% peer median.
    • The Fix ("Project Zero"):
      1. Cut $400M in bloat (Corporate, Real Estate, "Growth" Sales).
      2. Kill "Ventures": Stop lighting cash on fire (3D Printing, PARC).
      3. 100% Capital Return: Buy back 10% of float annually.

    Target Price: $27.00 (Base) | $40.00 (Bull) | +200% Upside


    Slide 3: The "Melting Ice Cube" Myth

    Visual: 10-Year Chart of Revenue vs. Free Cash Flow

    Narrative:

    • "Wall Street hates Xerox because revenue is declining (-32% in 5 years)."
    • But cash flow is resilient. XRX generated $500M+ FCF in 2024.
    • The decline is secular (Print is shrinking), but the profitability of that decline is a choice.
    • Key Insight: A shrinking business can be a great investment if costs shrink faster than revenue. Xerox management has failed this test.

    Slide 4: The Scorecard (Management Failure)

    Visual: Table comparing XRX to HPQ (HP Inc) and Sector Median

    MetricXerox (XRX)HP Inc (HPQ)Sector MedianGrade
    Gross Margin~32%21%*60% (Tech)F
    SG&A / Rev24.5%9.8%14.2%F
    Rev / Employee$315k$950k$500kF
    Share Count-5% YoY-8% YoY-C
    • Note: HP operates with channel leverage. Xerox's direct model is structurally inefficient.
    • Conclusion: Xerox is bloated. It runs a "Growth Tech" cost structure on a "Decline Utility" revenue base.

    Slide 5: The $680 Million Opportunity (SG&A)

    Visual: Waterfall Chart showing potential Op Income Bridge

    • Current SG&A: $1.62 Billion (24.5% of Sales)
    • Target SG&A: $1.10 Billion (18.0% of Sales - still above median!)
    • Savings: $520 Million
    • Reinvestment: $120M to Service Quality
    • Net Benefit: $400 Million in Incremental Operating Income.

    How?

    • Exit 50% of leased real estate.
    • Reduce layers of middle management (span of control <4).
    • Slash "Brand Marketing" (Xerox is a utility; it doesn't need Super Bowl ads).

    Slide 6: Stop The "Ventures" Bleeding

    Visual: Timeline of Failed "Growth" Pivots

    • 2019: Pivot to "3D Printing" -> Sold for loss.
    • 2020: Pivot to "Software" -> PARC spun out.
    • 2022: Pivot to "FITTLE" (Financing growth) -> Bad debt spike.
    • The Reality: Shareholders have paid $1.5 Billion for these experiments.
    • The Demand: Shut it down. Maintenance R&D only (<$60M/yr).

    Slide 7: The "Project Zero" Financial Model

    Visual: Bar chart of EPS Expansion

    MetricTodayProject Zero
    Revenue$6.6B$6.0B
    EBIT$358M$788M
    Net Income$143M$495M
    Shares125M110M
    EPS$1.14$4.50
    • Result: Even with revenue falling to $6.0B, EPS quadruples due to cost rightsizing and buybacks.

    Slide 8: Valuation & Upside

    Visual: Football Field Valuation Chart

    • Status Quo: 8x P/E on $1.14 = $9.12 (Downside Protected by Asset Value)

    • Project Zero (Base): 6x P/E on $4.50 = $27.00 (196% Upside)

    • Project Zero (Bull): 8x P/E on $5.00 = $40.00 (330% Upside)

    • Why 6x? Conservative multiple for a declining but cash-rich asset. Consistent with tobacco/coal stocks.


    Slide 9: Implementation Timeline

    • Day 0: Freeze all hiring. Freeze all M&A.
    • Day 30: Announce "Project Zero" Restructuring.
    • Day 90: Exit FITTLE non-core originations.
    • Day 180: Complete Real Estate rationalization.

    Slide 10: Conclusion

    Xerox is the ultimate Self-Help story. It does not need the print market to grow. It does not need a new invention. It just needs discipline.

    Vote FOR Project Zero.