The Thesis
Unity is the standard for creating real-time 3D content. If you play a mobile game, there is a 70% chance it was built on Unity.
The investment thesis is a turnaround play. The company stumbled with a merged ad-tech stack (IronSource) and a disastrous pricing change ("Runtime Fee"), but the core asset remains unique. As the world moves to 3D (Vision Pro, Industrial Digital Twins), Unity's engine is indispensable.
Product Deep Dive: Create vs. Grow
Unity operates two disparate businesses under one roof.
1. Identify (Create Solutions)
- The Product: The Game Engine (Editor).
- The User: Developers, Artists, Architects.
- The Moat: Learning curve. Once a developer learns C# and Unity's physics engine, they rarely switch to Unreal Engine (the main competitor).
- Industry: Expanding beyond games into Films (Disney uses it) and Automotive (Mercedes dashboard).
2. Grow Solutions (Ads)
- The Product: An ad network for mobile games.
- The Mechanism: Helping game developers monetize their free games (User Acquisition + Mediation).
- The Struggle: Apple's IDFA (privacy changes) hurt Unity's ability to target ads, forcing them to rebuild their data stack.
The Business Model
- Seat Subscription: Pro/Enterprise seats for the Editor.
- Revenue Share: The new "Runtime Fee" (reworked) takes a cut of success from massive games.
- Ad Revenue: Taking a cut of ad spend flowing through the network.
Risks
- Trust Deficit: The 2023 pricing fiasco (attempting to charge per install) destroyed developer trust. Rebuilding reputation takes years.
- Unreal Engine (Epic Games): Unreal offers higher fidelity graphics (Photorealism) and is winning in AAA console games and Hollywood. Unity is pinned to mobile.
- Execution: The company has been plagued by bad acquisitions and leadership churn.
Conclusion
Unity is a "Show Me" story. The 3D engine is a strategic asset for the Spatial Computing era, but management must prove they can monetize it without alienating their developer base.