Intuit (INTU): The AI-Driven Expert Platform

1. Executive Summary

Intuit controls the financial nervous system of American SMBs (QuickBooks) and consumers (TurboTax). The thesis hinges on their ability to transition from a "do-it-yourself" software provider to a "done-for-you" AI platform, capturing a larger share of the service fees previously paid to manual accountants.

Key Thesis Points

1. Live Platform: The shift to "TurboTax Live" and "QuickBooks Live" connects users with human experts (assisted by AI). This increases Average Revenue Per Customer (ARPC) significantly.
2. B2B Ecosystem: QuickBooks is no longer just accounting; it is Mailchimp (Marketing), Bill Pay, Payroll, and Capital. It is the operating system for small business.
3. Credit Karma Data: While volatile, the Credit Karma acquisition provides an unrivaled dataset on consumer financial health, enabling hyper-personalized lending offers and "money movement" monetization.

2. Business Overview

• Small Business & Self-Employed: QuickBooks Online (QBO), Payroll, Payments, Mailchimp. The crown jewel.
• Consumer: TurboTax. Highly seasonal, dominant market share, cash cow.
• Credit Karma: Marketplace for loans and credit cards.
• GenOS: Intuit's proprietary Generative AI operating system that underpins the "Intuit Assist" features.

3. Financial Analysis

(See Financials Tab for live data)

• Pricing Power: Intuit raises prices on QBO and TurboTax almost annually with minimal churn, demonstrating immense pricing power.
• Seasonality: Q2/Q3 are massive due to tax season; Q4/Q1 are lighter.
• Margins: Highly accretive software margins, though "Live" services introduce some human labor COGS (Cost of Goods Sold), slightly compressing gross margin but expanding total profit dollars.

4. Valuation

Intuit is a "Compounder."

• Stability: Viewed as a safe haven in tech due to the mandatory nature of taxes and accounting.
• AI Beneficiary: Intuit owns the context (banking data, tax history) that generic LLMs lack. This makes their AI features highly valuable and defensible.

5. Risks

• IRS Direct File: The US Government offering a free, direct tax filing system poses an existential threat to the low-end TurboTax business.
• SMB Health: A recession that wipes out small businesses would hurt the QuickBooks segment.