The Thesis
DoorDash is not just a food delivery company; it is the Last-Mile Logistics Layer for every local business.
While Uber focused on moving people, DoorDash focused maniacally on moving things in the suburbs. They won the US restaurant war (60%+ market share) and are now expanding into Grocery, Retail, and Package Delivery. The thesis is that DASH becomes the "FedEx of Local Commerce."
Product Deep Dive: Beyond Restaurants
1. DashPass
- The Product: Subscription for free delivery.
- The Value: 15M+ members. It increases order frequency and retention.
- Bundling: Partnered with Chase (Sapphire cards) and Max (streaming) to bundle DashPass, creating lock-in.
2. Grocery & Retail
- The Product: Delivering from Sephora, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Albertsons.
- The Economics: Larger basket sizes than burritos. This improves unit economics per dash.
- Ads: CPG brands (Coke/Pepsi) pay to boost items in the grocery search results.
3. Wolt (International)
- The Acquisition: Bought Wolt to expand into Europe/Japan.
- Strategy: Wolt runs the same "Suburban Logistics" play in fragmented international markets.
The Business Model
- Market Share Leader: Dominates the US suburbs where order values are higher (families vs single city dwellers).
- Unit Economics: Finally reached GAAP profitability by increasing efficiency (batching orders) and advertising density.
Risks
- Regulatory Cap: Cities like NYC and Seattle have imposed minimum wage laws for dashers, driving up prices and killing demand.
- Competition: Uber Eats is a formidable #2. Amazon is the sleeping giant (partnering with GrubHub).
- Consumer Spending: Delivery is a luxury. In a recession, it's the first thing to cut.
Conclusion
DoorDash is one of the best execution stories of the decade. They beat Uber at its own game. We like the expansion into "Everything Delivery."