Cadence (CDNS): The Arms Dealer of the Chip War

1. Executive Summary

Cadence (along with Synopsys) forms a duopoly in Electronic Design Automation (EDA). You cannot design a modern chip (NVIDIA, Apple, AMD) without their software. As chips become more complex (3D-stacking, Chiplets), the reliance on EDA tools increases exponentially, decoupling their revenue from chip volume and linking it to R&D spend.

Key Thesis Points

1. R&D Stickiness: Chip design costs are skyrocketing ($500M+ for a 3nm chip). Customers will not risk this investment by switching away from the industry standard toolset.
2. System Design: Cadence is expanding beyond chips into "Systems"—simulating thermal, fluid dynamics, and packaging for the entire data center rack.
3. AI-Driven Design: New tools (Cerebrus) use AI to optimize chip layouts automatically, allowing Cadence to charge for "results" (improved PPA) rather than just seats.

2. Business Overview

• EDA Software: Designing logic, verifying circuits.
• IP Blocks: Pre-designed components (DDR controllers, USB interfaces) that customers license to save time.

3. Financial Analysis

• Recurring Revenue: ~85% recurring. Highly predictable.
• Margins: Operating margins approach 40% with minimal CapEx.

4. Risks

• Cadence vs Synopsys: It is a fierce duopoly. Losing a major account (like Apple or NVIDIA) to Synopsys would be a blow.