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Earnings Analysis
Published
2025-12-10

ORCL Q3 2025 earnings analysis

Oracle Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis: Thesis Refinement

Key Points from SemiAnalysis Report (November 26, 2025)

  • OpenAI Datacenter Delays: The report identified significant delays at OpenAI's Abilene Stargate datacenter project, forecasting a potential $200 million earnings shortfall for Oracle. This was attributed to below-20% utilization rates and stalled chiller installations, directly preceding the 11.5% plunge in $ORCL stock on December 10, 2025.

  • Infrastructure Bottlenecks: On-site analysis revealed critical bottlenecks, including incomplete Crusoe deliveries and 90-day lags in GPU handovers. This highlights how the hype around AI can mask the real-world infrastructure and supply chain challenges in hyperscale projects.

  • CoreWeave Risk Validation: The report's pre-earnings flags on CoreWeave's multi-vertical risks were validated by CoreWeave's own November guidance dip and a subsequent stock fall on December 8 following news of a $2 billion debt offering. This demonstrates the value of SemiAnalysis's supply-chain tracking methodology for identifying high-stakes investment risks and opportunities in the AI sector.